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Feb
17

Have Global Temperatures Fallen 1.5 °C Since 1990?

The following is a combination of published data from various links.

Seriously, what is the global mean surface temperature of the Earth? Temperature graphs are presented as anomalies from the global mean. But what is the global mean temperature of the Earth and from what mean are the anomalies from?

No Tricks Zone (April 2013)

Something is not right with the figures coming from the world’s leading climate experts. The figures tell us the mean global surface temperature has dropped 1°C over the last 25 years. At that rate, we’ll be in an ice age by the year 2100!

Page 1 of Hoffmann’s two-page pdf file shows literature that says the mean global temperature in 1990 was 15.5°C. Page 2 shows the literature that says it is now only 14.5°C.

Here’s a chronology of the global mean surface temperature figures from the leading experts over the last 25 years:

1988: 15.4°C
Der Spiegel, based on (untampered) data from NASA (see chart above).

1990: 15.5°C
According to James Hansen and 5 other leading scientists; they too claimed the global mean surface temperature was 15.5°C. Also Prof. Christian Schönwiese claimed the same in his book “Klima im Wandel“, pages 73, 74 and 136. 15.5°C is also the figure given by a 1992 German government report, based on satellite data.

2004: 14.5°C
14 years later, the temperature mysteriously drops to 14.5°C, according to professors Hans Schellnhuber and Stefan Rahmstorf in their book: “Der Klimawandel”, 1st edition, 2006, p 37, based on surface station data from the Hadley Center.

2007: 14.5°C
And also according to the Holy Climate Bible, the IPCC WG1 AR4 (page 6 of bmbf.de/pub/IPCC2007.pdf).

2010: 14.5°C
Reconfirmed by Professors Schellnhuber and Rahmstorf in their book: Der Klimawandel, 7th edition, 2012, page 37, (see chart right) based on surface station data.

2012: 14.5°C
Also given by Prof Mojib Latif, March 20, 2012, 1:55 mark.

2012 14.0 °C
Press Release No. 943 World Meteorological Society Globally-averaged temperatures in 2011 were estimated to be 0.40° Centigrade above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14°C. http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_943_en.html

2013 Wikipedia: 14.0°C
Absolute temperatures for the Earth’s average surface temperature have been derived, with a best estimate of roughly 14 °C (57.2 °F).[11] However, the correct temperature could easily be anywhere between 13.3 and 14.4°C (56 and 58 °F) and uncertainty increases at smaller (non-global)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record

From NASA

The Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature (SAT)

The GISTEMP analysis concerns only temperature anomalies, not absolute temperature. Temperature anomalies are computed relative to the base period 1951-1980. The reason to work with anomalies, rather than absolute temperature is that absolute temperature varies markedly in short distances, while monthly or annual temperature anomalies are representative of a much larger region. Indeed, we have shown (Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987) that temperature anomalies are strongly correlated out to distances of the order of 1000 km.

Q. What exactly do we mean by SAT ?
A. I doubt that there is a general agreement how to answer this question. Even at the same location, the temperature near the ground may be very different from the temperature 5 ft above the ground and different again from 10 ft or 50 ft above the ground. Particularly in the presence of vegetation (say in a rain forest), the temperature above the vegetation may be very different from the temperature below the top of the vegetation. A reasonable suggestion might be to use the average temperature of the first 50 ft of air either above ground or above the top of the vegetation. To measure SAT we have to agree on what it is and, as far as I know, no such standard has been suggested or generally adopted. Even if the 50 ft standard were adopted, I cannot imagine that a weather station would build a 50 ft stack of thermometers to be able to find the true SAT at its location.

Q. What do we mean by daily mean SAT ?
A. Again, there is no universally accepted correct answer. Should we note the temperature every 6 hours and report the mean, should we do it every 2 hours, hourly, have a machine record it every second, or simply take the average of the highest and lowest temperature of the day ? On some days the various methods may lead to drastically different results.

Q. What SAT do the local media report ?
A. The media report the reading of 1 particular thermometer of a nearby weather station. This temperature may be very different from the true SAT even at that location and has certainly nothing to do with the true regional SAT. To measure the true regional SAT, we would have to use many 50 ft stacks of thermometers distributed evenly over the whole region, an obvious practical impossibility.

Q. If the reported SATs are not the true SATs, why are they still useful ?
A. The reported temperature is truly meaningful only to a person who happens to visit the weather station at the precise moment when the reported temperature is measured, in other words, to nobody. However, in addition to the SAT the reports usually also mention whether the current temperature is unusually high or unusually low, how much it differs from the normal temperature, and that information (the anomaly) is meaningful for the whole region. Also, if we hear a temperature (say 70°F), we instinctively translate it into hot or cold, but our translation key depends on the season and region, the same temperature may be ‘hot’ in winter and ‘cold’ in July, since by ‘hot’ we always mean ‘hotter than normal’, i.e. we all translate absolute temperatures automatically into anomalies whether we are aware of it or not.

Q. If SATs cannot be measured, how are SAT maps created ?
A. This can only be done with the help of computer models, the same models that are used to create the daily weather forecasts. We may start out the model with the few observed data that are available and fill in the rest with guesses (also called extrapolations) and then let the model run long enough so that the initial guesses no longer matter, but not too long in order to avoid that the inaccuracies of the model become relevant. This may be done starting from conditions from many years, so that the average (called a ‘climatology’) hopefully represents a typical map for the particular month or day of the year.

Q. What do I do if I need absolute SATs, not anomalies ?
A. In 99.9% of the cases you’ll find that anomalies are exactly what you need, not absolute temperatures. In the remaining cases, you have to pick one of the available climatologies and add the anomalies (with respect to the proper base period) to it. For the global mean, the most trusted models produce a value of roughly 14°C, i.e. 57.2°F, but it may easily be anywhere between 56 and 58°F and regionally, let alone locally, the situation is even worse.

We also have the Issue of a recent changes in the Historical Data Records

1974 NCAR graph (red) showed the 1940-1970 global cooling which has disappeared in Muller’s hockey stick.

Climate science/renewable energy critic Rainer Hoffmann has researched the literature on mean global surface temperature.

Stunningly, he shows that something is not right with the figures coming from the world’s leading climate experts. The figures tell us the mean global surface temperature has dropped 1°C over the last 25 years. At that rate, we’ll be in an ice age by the year 2100!

Page 1 of Hoffmann’s two-page pdf file shows literature that says the mean global temperature in 1990 was 15.5°C. Page 2 shows the literature that says it is now only 14.5°C.

Here’s a chronology of the global mean surface temperature figures from the leading experts over the last 25 years:

Temperature_Spiegel1988: 15.4°C
Der Spiegel, based on (untampered) data from NASA (see chart right).

1990: 15.5°C
According to James Hansen and 5 other leading scientists; they too claimed the global mean surface temperature was 15.5°C. Also Prof. Christian Schönwiese claimed the same in his book “Klima im Wandel“, pages 73, 74 and 136. 15.5°C is also the figure given by a 1992 German government report, based on satellite data.

2004: 14.5°C
14 years later, the temperature mysteriously drops to 14.5°C, according to professors Hans Schellnhuber and Stefan Rahmstorf in their book: “Der Klimawandel”, 1st edition, 2006, p 37, based on surface station data from the Hadley Center.

2007: 14.5°C
And also according to the Holy Climate Bible, the IPCC WG1 AR4 (page 6 of bmbf.de/pub/IPCC2007.pdf).

Schellnhuber_Temperature2010: 14.5°C
Reconfirmed by Professors Schellnhuber and Rahmstorf in their book: Der Klimawandel, 7th edition, 2012, page 37, (see chart right) based on surface station data.

2012: 14.5°C
Also given by Prof Mojib Latif, March 20, 2012, 1:55 mark.

I wrote about this issue once before awhile back. But now Hoffmann has summed it nicely in just two pages, see link at the top of the page. The consensus today for mean global surface temperature seems to be 14.5°C, while in 1990 it was a balmy 15.5°C.

Of course we know that the mean global surface temperature has not fallen 1°C since 1990, so it is obvious that the experts are all confused about what the real mean temperature really is.

It is highly disturbing that mean global surface temperature numbers may simply have been plucked out of the blue. At least there’s agreement that the temperature has stagnated over the last 10 years or so…at 14.5°C.

Often we see temperature trends depicted as anomalies. But anomalies from what?

The whole business of transforming society based on a figure that we now see is completely in dispute and in a state of utter confusion needs to be stopped until the issue gets cleared up. If it was 15.5°C in 1990 and today it is indeed only 14.5°C, then shouldn’t we be preparing for something totally different? Which figure is right?

The scientists need to explain this situation. Talking about trends and anomalies when there’s no agreement on the benchmark temperature makes no sense.

- See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/21/coming-ice-age-according-to-leading-experts-global-mean-temperature-has-dropped-1c-since-1990/#sthash.D2p3cDaq.dpuf

Climate science/renewable energy critic Rainer Hoffmann has researched the literature on mean global surface temperature.

Stunningly, he shows that something is not right with the figures coming from the world’s leading climate experts. The figures tell us the mean global surface temperature has dropped 1°C over the last 25 years. At that rate, we’ll be in an ice age by the year 2100!

Page 1 of Hoffmann’s two-page pdf file shows literature that says the mean global temperature in 1990 was 15.5°C. Page 2 shows the literature that says it is now only 14.5°C.

Here’s a chronology of the global mean surface temperature figures from the leading experts over the last 25 years:

Temperature_Spiegel1988: 15.4°C
Der Spiegel, based on (untampered) data from NASA (see chart right).

1990: 15.5°C
According to James Hansen and 5 other leading scientists; they too claimed the global mean surface temperature was 15.5°C. Also Prof. Christian Schönwiese claimed the same in his book “Klima im Wandel“, pages 73, 74 and 136. 15.5°C is also the figure given by a 1992 German government report, based on satellite data.

2004: 14.5°C
14 years later, the temperature mysteriously drops to 14.5°C, according to professors Hans Schellnhuber and Stefan Rahmstorf in their book: “Der Klimawandel”, 1st edition, 2006, p 37, based on surface station data from the Hadley Center.

2007: 14.5°C
And also according to the Holy Climate Bible, the IPCC WG1 AR4 (page 6 of bmbf.de/pub/IPCC2007.pdf).

Schellnhuber_Temperature2010: 14.5°C
Reconfirmed by Professors Schellnhuber and Rahmstorf in their book: Der Klimawandel, 7th edition, 2012, page 37, (see chart right) based on surface station data.

2012: 14.5°C
Also given by Prof Mojib Latif, March 20, 2012, 1:55 mark.

I wrote about this issue once before awhile back. But now Hoffmann has summed it nicely in just two pages, see link at the top of the page. The consensus today for mean global surface temperature seems to be 14.5°C, while in 1990 it was a balmy 15.5°C.

Of course we know that the mean global surface temperature has not fallen 1°C since 1990, so it is obvious that the experts are all confused about what the real mean temperature really is.

It is highly disturbing that mean global surface temperature numbers may simply have been plucked out of the blue. At least there’s agreement that the temperature has stagnated over the last 10 years or so…at 14.5°C.

Often we see temperature trends depicted as anomalies. But anomalies from what?

The whole business of transforming society based on a figure that we now see is completely in dispute and in a state of utter confusion needs to be stopped until the issue gets cleared up. If it was 15.5°C in 1990 and today it is indeed only 14.5°C, then shouldn’t we be preparing for something totally different? Which figure is right?

The scientists need to explain this situation. Talking about trends and anomalies when there’s no agreement on the benchmark temperature makes no sense.

- See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/21/coming-ice-age-according-to-leading-experts-global-mean-temperature-has-dropped-1c-since-1990/#sthash.D2p3cDaq.dpuf

Climate science/renewable energy critic Rainer Hoffmann has researched the literature on mean global surface temperature.

Stunningly, he shows that something is not right with the figures coming from the world’s leading climate experts. The figures tell us the mean global surface temperature has dropped 1°C over the last 25 years. At that rate, we’ll be in an ice age by the year 2100!

Page 1 of Hoffmann’s two-page pdf file shows literature that says the mean global temperature in 1990 was 15.5°C. Page 2 shows the literature that says it is now only 14.5°C.

Here’s a chronology of the global mean surface temperature figures from the leading experts over the last 25 years:

Temperature_Spiegel1988: 15.4°C
Der Spiegel, based on (untampered) data from NASA (see chart right).

1990: 15.5°C
According to James Hansen and 5 other leading scientists; they too claimed the global mean surface temperature was 15.5°C. Also Prof. Christian Schönwiese claimed the same in his book “Klima im Wandel“, pages 73, 74 and 136. 15.5°C is also the figure given by a 1992 German government report, based on satellite data.

2004: 14.5°C
14 years later, the temperature mysteriously drops to 14.5°C, according to professors Hans Schellnhuber and Stefan Rahmstorf in their book: “Der Klimawandel”, 1st edition, 2006, p 37, based on surface station data from the Hadley Center.

2007: 14.5°C
And also according to the Holy Climate Bible, the IPCC WG1 AR4 (page 6 of bmbf.de/pub/IPCC2007.pdf).

Schellnhuber_Temperature2010: 14.5°C
Reconfirmed by Professors Schellnhuber and Rahmstorf in their book: Der Klimawandel, 7th edition, 2012, page 37, (see chart right) based on surface station data.

2012: 14.5°C
Also given by Prof Mojib Latif, March 20, 2012, 1:55 mark.

I wrote about this issue once before awhile back. But now Hoffmann has summed it nicely in just two pages, see link at the top of the page. The consensus today for mean global surface temperature seems to be 14.5°C, while in 1990 it was a balmy 15.5°C.

Of course we know that the mean global surface temperature has not fallen 1°C since 1990, so it is obvious that the experts are all confused about what the real mean temperature really is.

It is highly disturbing that mean global surface temperature numbers may simply have been plucked out of the blue. At least there’s agreement that the temperature has stagnated over the last 10 years or so…at 14.5°C.

Often we see temperature trends depicted as anomalies. But anomalies from what?

The whole business of transforming society based on a figure that we now see is completely in dispute and in a state of utter confusion needs to be stopped until the issue gets cleared up. If it was 15.5°C in 1990 and today it is indeed only 14.5°C, then shouldn’t we be preparing for something totally different? Which figure is right?

The scientists need to explain this situation. Talking about trends and anomalies when there’s no agreement on the benchmark temperature makes no sense.

- See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/21/coming-ice-age-according-to-leading-experts-global-mean-temperature-has-dropped-1c-since-1990/#sthash.D2p3cDaq.dpuf